From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”