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Within the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday marked its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another independent nation and seize its president – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.