Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.