🔗 Share this article

Just two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – going beyond the winner citywide, but block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally frequently! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were two big batches of ballots added after that and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. However the winner gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and people struggling with costs

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president last year backed the progressive this year. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to surpass 50%. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I hope he does so afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. The independent held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and homeowners all went for Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. However no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the election there was coverage on if the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he did?

Exist areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.